UFC 294 from Abu Dhabi, the Arab Emirates is comprised of thirteen MMA bouts featuring athletes from India, Afghanistan, England, Tajikistan, Nigeria, and Dagestan not to mention staples like Brazil, Russia and the US.
Prelims for UFC 294 begin at 7am PST with the main card kicking-off at 11am PST. This week we’ll enjoy KOs with our coffee.
Both Main and co main events have been altered with new opponents in the last couple of weeks compounding the interest and intrigue for each bout.
Paramount in profiting from UFC events on foreign soil is understanding that the UFC is primarily interested in its growth. Expansion of its brand comes from igniting interest in every corner of the world and the most effective way to accomplish that is to grant regional athletes somewhat favorable matchups when these foreign cards are held.
Local talent succeeding fuels regional growth and with athletes from remote countries like Afghanistan and India featured on this card it takes a little more scrutiny to determine if the regional athlete is set up favorably or not.
Champion Islam Makhachev -260 vs. Alex Volkanovski +210 Lightweight (155lbs.) Title
This rematch, several months after their original tussle stands to be much different this time around based on the fact that current featherweight champion Volkanovski takes this challenge on about two weeks’ notice.
Australian Volkanovski, the current Featherweight title holder and acknowledged ‘pound for pound’* champion in the UFC again moves up a weight class to challenge Russian grappling savant Makhachev.
Makhachev holds the lightweight title. He is going to be challenged by the late notice change of opponent for he was preparing for a completely different fighting challenge and one he surely felt more comfortable with.
Now instead of a long lanky Brazilian foe he gets an unrelenting Aussie buzzsaw who had Makhachev on the ropes in the fifth round of their razor close split decision fight this past February.
Makhachev is four inches the taller man but he’ll have no reach advantage, he’s three years younger at thirty-two and he’s the competitor used to facing larger, heavier athletes in competition. His striking is serviceable and his grappling/sambo/wrestling is world class dominant.
In Volkanovski we get a uniquely constructed athlete who in his youth played championship team rugby at 205lbs! Volkanovski uses discipline, fortitude, and grit in order to attain the 145lb. limit let alone dominate there.
Based on his performance in their first bout, Volkanovski should have no issues competing at lightweight but how much does this bout change from the first based on the short notice nature to each athlete as well the lack of camp time for Volkanovski?
Volkanovski’s footwork and striking showed to be superior to Makhachev’s in the first bout and while he’s not the grappling threat that Makhachev is, his wrestling base coupled with his short stout frame presented Makhachev with a tremendous challenge especially as the fight wore on and the Russian began to slow.
Once the bell for this rematch rings, I’ll be lasered in on how Volkanovski approaches champion Makhachev. Will he use patience and try to go deep into the fight showing more potential conditioning than many may give him credit for? Or, will Volk attack and try to get the belt wrested from the champion early based again on the short notice nature of this fight?
For Makhachev nothing changes. He’s going to wrestle early and often for that’s the best way to usurp Volkanovski’s energy and make him vulnerable in the later rounds. I must say that while Makhachev’s had the benefit of a full camp, he’s surely feeling the anxiety in this switch of opponent’s because Volkanovski is THE most viable threat to Makhachev in my judgement.
Volkanovski’s mentality coupled with that compact frame, incredible strength, Greco-Roman wrestling base are his weaponry. Something tells me a professional like Volk while not actively training is never far away from top conditioning anyway. I believe that.
Makhachev opened -330 in the first bout and closed -400.
In this one Makhachev opened -200 and has been bet up to current -260 most likely based on the fact that he’s the legitimate Lightweight titleholder with a full training camp behind him.
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Over -125
I’ll have more to say about this fight as the week wears on.
Khamzat Chimaev -275 vs. Kamaru Usman +230 Middleweight co main event
Like Volkanovski above, former champion Welterweight Kamaru Usman steps into this 185lb. Middleweight bout on very short notice while his opponent, fourth ranked Welterweight Chimaev has had the benefit of a full camp.
185lbs is the target weight class Chimaev has been preparing to compete in for months now but for Usman this will be his first foray into competing at middleweight.
Russian Chimaev sports a world class freestyle wrestling base, a purple belt in BJJ, a striking acumen that is yet developing and a cardio vascular capability that was regarded as elite until his bout with Gil Burns. Many say it was the cut and thus we’ll learn plenty from watching these to vie at 185.
Chimaev’s last bout was a cakewalk finish against Kevin Holland, an athlete that has little wrestling acumen prior to that he overpowered gatekeeper Li Jingliang and Gerald Meerschardt before he was truly tested by top ten talent Gil Burns, a fighter that was pulverized by Usman in a recent fight.
Until the Burns fight Chimaev’s momentum was skyrocketing, he then walked through a singularly equipped Kevin Holland and arrives to this bout after being inactive for over a year.
Chimaev, up in weight and coming in somewhat inactive facing off against a legitimate title contender in Usman is surely a test that should Chimaev pass will push him right into title contention.
Usman’s motives for taking this bout revolve around the exact same motivations as Chmaev’s. By daring to be great on short notice Usman himself will be propelled into the top contender status (in the welterweight division) should he be able to get his hand raised against a guy in Chimaev that few are willing to face no matter the weight class.
Chimaev opened -310 for this bout.
Total for this bout: 2.5Rds. Under -160
Anshul Jubli -300 vs. Mike Breeden +250 Lightweight (155lbs.)
This appears to be a perfect example of the organization’s zeal to seep deep into every corner of the athletic world in order to both capture talent and fans.
Jubli is 6’0” and twenty-eight years old and arrives with plenty of hype as he’s the first fighter of Indian descent in the UFC.
When reviewing his record, it’s hard to hold his work against local talent against him understanding that India is still relatively novice when it comes to MMA.
Jubli is a refined boxer with a stiff, straight jab as well he holds a solid wrestling base but until I see him against legitimate UFC caliber talent, I’ll consider this young man someone the UFC can cash in on if only he can execute Saturday, then beyond.
Jubli earned a win in the ‘Road to the UFC’ production via split decision then won impressively in his UFC debit this past February against Jeka Saragih a singularly dimensioned debuting fighter himself.
In Mike Breeden we get a fighter that’s 0-3 in the UFC and has lost two of those in the first round however we must peel the handicap back a bit to understand that Breeden is the athlete who has competed against a far more elite level of talent than has Jubli.
Breeden’s loss to Alex Hernandez was his debut. He then took Nathan Levy to a decision loss and in his last was stopped in the first against firebomber Terrence McKinney in what many consider to be an early stoppage.
Breeden’s focused on this fourth fight because he knows most fighters only get three losses before they’re booted.
He’s got his back against the wall, he’s desperate to remain in the UFC, he feels his last fight ended unfairly, he has a wealth more experience, he’s been in with better fighters and he’s coming to award young Mr. Jubli his PhD. in MMA
Breeden +250
Total in this fight: 1.5 Over -200
Breeden will need to get this fight into the second round at all costs for the longer this bout goes the more dominant he’ll become.
The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast is searing through 2023. The Podcast drops early Friday morning PST because of the early Saturday start time.
Enjoy the Bouts and Thank You for reading