Five UFC fight cards remain in 2023 starting with this week’s UFC 295 from New York City. As is often the case in the volatile UFC, some of the athletes have been replaced but competitive viable betting opportunities surely remain.
Last week amid a slew of fight cancellations my release of the Danish Viking Nicolas Dalby to provide a stern test for the talented Brazilian Gabriel Bonfim did result in a successful win bet on the Over. However, I wish I’d given Dalby more consideration straight up as he knocked Bonfim out in the second round as a +380/+400 underdog.
‘Bout Business Podcast 2023: 95-87 +32.19u 18% ROI (125)
Jiri Prochazka +110 vs. Alex Pereira +130 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) title
This title fight features Prochazka, the former title holder prior to his devastating shoulder injury, competing against Pereira for the title which is currently vacated after most recent champion Jamahal Hill suffered injury a few months ago.
Pereira is ranked third in the division after but one bout against elite talent Jan Blachowicz. He has much to gain with a win here and plenty to prove namely that his power and striking effectiveness can carry into this heavier, larger light heavyweight division.
Working in Pereira’s favor are his rapid evolution into MMA, his mentor former light heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira a former foe of Prochazka, and his zeal to earn UFC belts in two different divisions.
For the Brazilian Pereira decorated with a black belt in kickboxing and a brown belt in BJJ, there is much to gain from a victory here.
In Prochazka we must rely on the fact that his shoulder which was damn near torn off like a cooked chicken wing has fully recovered and that he is not only cleared to compete but is 110% prepared for war physically and mentally.
Both of these men sport shallow UFC history therefore the significant striking data is somewhat skewed. Each athlete delivers effective powerful damaging shots at high rates. Pereira lands 5.11 significant strikes per minute and allows 3.70 so he is accruing damage while mindful of defense.
Prochazka delivers his strikes with similar frequency but with well more power but his defense is less sound. Jiri lands 5.7 significant strikes per minute but he absorbs 5.40 per minute which makes for a fighter ‘willing to eat one to give one’.
It’s my position that Pereira is the more diligent, refined, precise striker while Jiri is the more telegraphing but devastating one.
Each man maims opponents with bludgeoning leg kicks in conjunction with those long damaging strikes but with Jiri the power and devastating effects are clear as he’s finished all three of his UFC opponents.
Pereira has not displayed the finishing traits or ferocity in the cage we have seen from Jiri especially in his sole light heavyweight tussle against Blachowicz.
Makers have made the total in this bout 1.5Rds Over -130
I can’t envision something that looks like an early finish in this fight.
Pat Sabatini -135 vs. Diego Lopes +115 Featherweight (145lbs.)
Sabatini, from Philadelphia area brings a well-rounded fight arsenal to his bouts. Solid wrestling complimented by black belts in BJJ and a Korean Karate fight form called ‘Tang Soo Do’ are Sabatini’s credentials. When he has it going well Sabatini employs aggressive forward pressure to clasp, clinch and control opponents. He’s dominant in the clinch, against the fence or on the floor with opponents for on the feet he is unsure of himself offensively and somewhat ineffective defensively.
Lopes hits the ‘Big Apple’ with revenge on his mind for his UFC debut was in New Jersey against Movsar Evloev this past May. In that bout Lopes looked like anything but a debuting athlete. He gave eighth ranked Evloev all he could handle in that decision loss and it was that night that I recognized future opportunity on this young Brazilian gamer.
In this fight Lopes will be the younger man by three years, he’s two inches taller and will sport a two-inch reach advantage arms and legs.
As importantly Lopes BJJ grappling is on par to Sabatini’s BJJ wrestling though I credit Lopes with far more fluidity and natural striking ability as well his ability to take a shot to the schnoz is a strength.
Achilles heel to Sabatini unfortunately is his balsa wood beak for if flushed on the face Sabatini can fold up as we witnessed against a long, tall, gangly Damon Jackson.
Once this bout begins, I look for Lopes to be fresher, faster, stronger and able to keep this fight standing and at distance. From there his striking will have maximum effect on Sabatini as he tries to work his way inside to engage.
Lopes +115
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Under -180
Benoit St. Denis -230 vs. Matt Frevola +190 Lightweight (155lbs.)
I’m warning everyone now that this fight is pure violence.
Matt ‘the Steamrolla’ Frevola, a lieutenant in the US Army reserve fights out of Long Island with the Longo Weidman team. He holds a brown belt in BJJ but his game really revolves around striking …with power. Frevola’s ideal scenario is to engage anyone, anywhere in a closed quarter, flat footed throwdown.
Frevola’s power is fight ending as witnessed by the cocky Drew Dober who was iced by Frevola in his last outing. However, in this fight Frevola steps up in class against an athlete that I believe is on his way straight to the top five of the lightweight division.
In St. Denis we have an ex-military green beret in the French Army. He’s taller, longer and younger than is the local New Yorker as well he is gifted with a more complete fight arsenal. St. Denis thrives in the firestorm of fury and is able to dominate anywhere the fight takes place.
His foe Frevola needs fights to remain on the feet to have his best chance to win while St. Denis can shake, rattle or roll from anywhere in the cage.
Frevola will take this fight directly to St. Denis. St. Denis will walk down Frevola with urgency and ill intent. The result will be some outstanding watching!
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Under -150
GambLou’s ‘Bout Business Podcast drops Friday mid-day PT. Look for it across all platforms.
Enjoy the bouts and Thank you for reading.