UFC 303 takes place this weekend from the T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas Nevada.
The PPV event has been upgraded by the addition of a top line main event and highly competitive co main event in place of the originally scheduled charade that featured Conor McGregor vs. Michael Chandler.
Just last week on this column I mentioned the nimble approach the UFC has in maintaining/replacing signature events when for any number of reasons fighters fall out of bouts. This fight card is a classic example of that.
UFC 303 now becomes a more spectacular card with the addition of Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka as the main event and Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes as its co main event.
Last week I took advantage of a rare opportunity to invest in an elite pedigreed top three rated fighter facing a rising but unproven commodity when Robert Whittaker violently knocked out Ikram Aliskerov in the first round.
Whittaker’s dominant finish over Aliskerov thrusts my UFC profitability this year to 15-12 +6.03u.
Favorites in the UFC are 67% (171-80-4) in 2024. My digital win percentage of 55.5% coupled with an average win price of +120 provided readers a great advantage, especially considering the high rate of favorites this year.
This week we’ll have a live raucous crowd for UFC 303 in Las Vegas as well the larger 30’ cage will be in use,
Early prelims begin at 3pm PT, preliminary action starts at 5pm PT and the main card kicks off at 7pm PT.
Alex Pereira -135 vs. Jiri Prochazka +120 II Light Heavyweight (205lbs.) Championship
This is a rematch of the championship bout waged just last November when Prochazka opened -135 then closed +105 against Pereira.
In that bout the forward pressing Prochazka’s aggression won him the first round before he became overly reckless. He believed he would be able to compete effectively with an elite, pedigreed world class kickboxing specialist who is also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu in Pereira and was KO’d four minutes into the second round for that confidence.
Since that fight Pereira went on to knock out Jamahal Hill in one round in April’s UFC 300 while Prochazka found himself in a firefight with Alexander Rakic on that same card. He won via finish in the second round in a fight where he absorbed substantial damage but was unwilling to acquiesce and used his will to earn victory.
Each man takes this fight on short notice in order to help the UFC salvage this fight card when McGregor vacated the main event with a bruise on his little toe.
Prochazka is the number one ranked contender to Pereira’s crown and while this will be a thrilling rematch, there is little reason to believe that the result we witnessed in November should be much different now in July.
Many will claim that Prochazka has a grappling advantage in this matchup, but I beg to differ.
Not only is Pereira a black belt in BJJ but he has been under the tutelage of Glover Teixeira for several years and it is my contention that we have not seen Pereira apply grappling into his fights because he has not had to call upon the specialty.
None of his foes have forced him to defend the takedown nor have they pursued him with any grappling advances. Rather, Pereira’s foes have chosen to compete with the world class striking talent at his strength, standing which is dumbfounding in itself.
Jiri’s unorthodox striking style, his low defensive guard, and his ability to unleash power from any appendage surely make him an adversary to respect even fear but Pereira is the more calculated, matriculated, battle tested power striker as well his defensive abilities are more established than those of Prochazka.
In a fight where either man is able to put the other man’s lights out, I’ll lean to Pereira in this competitive bout simply because he has more ways to earn victory, his defense is substantially more advance and he carries the momentum of his victory over Prochazka just seven months ago into this rematch.
Pereira -130
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds. Over -175
Lean over.
Diego Lopes -148 vs. Brian Ortega +125 Featherweight co main event
This co main event is a five-round fight.
It will be Lopes’ first foray into five rounds. The fourteenth ranked Lopes has but four UFC bouts of experience. He lost his debut to a ranked Mosvar Evloev then rebounded by finishing each of his last three unranked foes.
Lopes, who has been extremely active since he entered the UFC opened a +130 underdog for this bout. He will be the taller, longer, younger athlete in the cage on Saturday but he’ll be giving away a great deal of cage experience to his adversary. As well his opponent holds well more five round big fight experience than he as well Brian Ortega, Lopes, foe has competed against the elite of the division over the course of the last couple of years.
Lopes would be wise to try to keep this fight standing where his physical traits can be applied. Though he is a black belt in BJJ it is in the grappling and ground rolling where I give Ortega an advantage.
This fight will offer fans striking, grappling, rolling and submission attempts in what I handicap to be a true display of mixed martial arts from both athletes. That said, Ortega was opened the rightful -150 favorite according to my handicapping which I choose to believe is the more appropriate depiction of these men’s fight abilities TODAY.
In a highly competitive battle where the experience, guile and craftiness of Ortega should be the difference over a man in Lopes that is stepping up in competition for this test, I’ll choose to side with the more experienced fighter who opened the favorite and has now become the underdog.
Recency…. It sometimes tells lies.
Total for this fight: 1.5Rds Over -220
Roman Dolidze -145 vs. Anthony Smith +125 Light Heavyweight (205lbs.)
I’m breaking down big boy fighters today for there are much more violent tendencies when large men fight than when smaller men compete in the cage. This is evidenced by the fact that the finishing rate for light heavyweight athletes in the UFC since 2014 is 60% which is the highest rate of any division in the UFC except for Heavyweight.
Roman Dolidze takes this fight on just days’ notice. He does his training between California and X-Treme Couture in Las Vegas which takes travel out of the complexity of the short notice nature of this battle but understand that Dolidze competes at middleweight or 185 pounds and steps up in weight class against a legitimate, tenth ranked light heavyweight for this fight.
Anthony Smith accepts this challenge on short notice also and now competes against a talent in Dolidze who brings a much different fighting style than did Smith’s original opponent Carlos Ulberg.
Dolidze is less elite on the feet than Ulberg, in fact he is wildly powerful yet lacking pace, precision and quickness. Where Smith’s original opponent Ulberg had no ability to grapple/wrestle Dolidze is a talented grappling threat and may choose to attack Smith with that approach.
Anthony Smith is elite anywhere a fight takes place as he is a gifted grappler/wrestler and is able to strike effectively though any power in his striking is accrued over time for he does not possess one punch, fight ending power.
Once this fight begins it will be Dolidze who will immediately look to engage, press forward, and unleash power striking to try to put Amith on his heels and in a defensive nature.
Smith will look to boomerang Dolidze’s aggression into the opportunity to take him to the floor then force him to expend energy returning to his feet as Smith will be the larger force in the cage.
Smith will use his crafty veteran experience to bewilder Dolidze on the feet until he can manipulate the smaller Georgian fighter onto the mat where he may then reign strikes, elbows and eventually submission attempts upon Dolidze who is tough, durable and willing yet rough around the edges when it comes to the refinement of fighting.
Dolidze’s approach is quite simple, apply forward pressure and utilize his fight ending power to bludgeon any opponent.
The risk Dolidze takes in competing with Smith is that Smith’s seen every style of light heavyweight foe. He will be more than willing to allow Dolidze to front run until he makes a mistake which is when the highly experienced Smith will make him pay for his aggressive nature.
As I break this fight down, I see the violent nature of Dolidze being eventually subdued by the diplomacy of the more well-rounded mixed martial artist Smith. For that reason, I’ll invest in
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -120
Lean over.
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