Perth, Australia is the location for this week’s UFC 305.
Competing fighters will benefit from a hysterical Aussie crowd witnessing twelve scheduled bouts in a large 30-foot cage where preliminary action begins at 3:30pm PT.
The card features nine Australians seven of which face opponents from around the globe. As is always the case when the UFC travels to locations throughout the world, it’s important to understand who the local athletes are and which fighters if any are likely to benefit from potential favorable matchmaking, lack of travel as well potential ‘home cooking’ decision results.
Last week Sergei Spivak earned digital readers another unit of profit as he submitted Polish heavyweight fighter Marcin Tybura in the first round. Spivak is a heavyweight that can whup anyone on the roster save the top five ranked heavyweights in the division.
UFC favorites 2024: 220-97-8 (67.6%)
2024 Digital results: 20-16 +8.73 (+123)
Dricus Du Plessis +110 vs. Israel Adesanya -130 Middleweight (185lbs.) title
DDP is a massive sized profusely powerful South African kickboxing talent, he is 7-0 in the UFC but has only defeated two elite middleweight opponents, one could argue that the title he won came via a faulty split decision.
Du Plessis is a forward pressing, heavy handed striker who can numb legs with his kicks and shut down foe’s consciousness with this power striking. Du Plessis is neither swift afoot nor nimble evading strikes, but in his own way he is awkwardly agile, tough, durable and since his nose operation seems to be able to fight without any cardiovascular issues.
In former champion and second ranked middleweight Adesanya, Du Plessis draws an opponent not only four inches taller than he but one with considerable speed/quickness advantages. Despite the fact that Adesanya is now thirty-five the Nigerian is light years ahead of Du Plessis when it comes to innate quickness, precision striking, strike defense and athleticism.
With Adesanya the question is not whether he is capable of defeating Du Plessis, the question is whether Adesanya is property focused, trained, and motivated to take aggressive action when this fight calls for him to inflict damage.
When fighting for a UFC title motivation is rarely questioned and, in this case, with the rivalry between them and each claiming to be ‘the’ authentic African athlete motivation is not questioned. What may be called into question rather than motivation is emotion.
Emotion is rarely a fighter’s friend, it at all times must be checked and eradicated. That said, in this fight I sense an abundance of emotion emanating from Adesanya.
Adesanya’s physical fight plan is simple, use his speed, quickness, combination striking and deft defense to befuddle DDP and force him into becoming predictable by charging inside to engage.
For DDP he needs to be patient. Understanding that this is a twenty-five-minute fight, and it may take him all twenty-five to badger/frustrate Adesanya, force him into a corner then unleash power hooks and crosses to the body and head.
DDP will look to shut the lights out on Issy with bludgeoning strikes and kicks while Adesanya will look to shred DDP with accumulated volume and eventually take him out by utilizing space, time, angles, and combination striking…that is provided he is level, balanced and focused mentally.
This title defense is the FIRST real test for DDP as he was awarded a close decision against Strickland and now, he must face Issy in Australia with all his fellow ‘sandgroppers’ cheering him on.
DDP has been chiding Issy constantly leading up to fight week and I wonder if his quips about Issy being in his own head may be getting to the former champion.
DDP must remain logical and clinical in this fight, He must follow his plan and hope that over time he can suck some of the speed and zip from Adesanya in order to try to catch him with any form of devastating strike, kick, or elbow.
Adesanya for his part must remain stone faced and without emotion, if he can maintain his emotional control, he stands a great chance of finishing DDP. If Adesanya gets emotional and wanders from his team’s plan then he’ll have to find a way to live with the outcome of this fight, one he should technically win.
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Under -145
Steve Erceg -205 `vs. Kai Kara-France +180 Flyweight (125lbs.) co main event
Fourth ranked Erceg leaped up the flyweight rankings after his impressive title opportunity against current champion Alexandre Pantoja.
Erceg is a balanced mixed martial artist, he can grapple a good game as well he has size, length and effective striking ability. Add to that the fact that he provided the current flyweight champion a bona fide scare in their recent title fight, and we can add confidence to his already complete MMA weaponry.
In Erceg we have a fighter that in my judgement may not be defeated for some time in this division should he defeat the elite Kara-France.
Kara-France is an authentic and difficult test for Erceg as Kara-France is deeply experienced, has competed against the elite of the division and has earned finishes via the KO and submission.
Kara France is 3-2 in his last five fights losing his last two straight to former champion Brandon Moreno then a razor close, controversial loss to Amir Abazzi in a fight that most believed Kara-France won.
Kara-France is the older fighter, he has an experience edge over Erceg as well he may be the quicker of the two, but he’ll need to be able to deal with Erceg’s power grappling.
Erceg opened eyes with his battle against Pantoja so he will not sneak up on anyone in this division now but the question we need answered is this: Is Erceg ‘the’ legitimate threat to the flyweight title?
With a dominant performance Saturday night against a mainstay in the division in Kara-France that question must be a resounding yes.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -250
Luana Santos -165 vs. Casey O’Neill +145 women’s flyweight (125lbs.)
Brazilian Santos is twenty-four, she’s 3-0 in the UFC but has competed only against a nominal set of UFC mixed martial artists. A judo and BJJ practitioner Santos is aggressive and willing but has yet to share the cage with any legitimate bona fide adversary. That said, she has looked efficient in disposing of who has been put in front of her.
Scotland’s O’Neill who currently trains in Las Vegas at Xtreme Couture enters loser of her last two. Her loss to Jenn Maia was a tight fight and can be understood as she was coming off of an injury into that bout. Her last outing was worrisome as O’Neill looked passive and lethargic in a submission loss to Ariane Lipski, a fight that O’Neill should have won in my judgement.
So, Santos arrives looking to take O’Neill’s 15th ranking in the division away from her while O’Neill is poised to regain control of her ranking with a stellar showing off of that last loss.
O’Neill’s a well-equipped, versatile fighter. She possesses expertise in Muay Thai striking, she’s earned a brown belt in BJJ and her father brought her up in kickboxing.
O’Neill’s two years the older fighter who holds a good deal of experience over Santos and experience against a higher level of competition at that. She’ll be the slightly larger athlete in the cage Saturday so with her diverse mixed martial arts weaponry, and her desperation to reaffirm her standing in the division it’s my belief that she comes out and competes in dominant fashion.
O’Neill opened -150 for this fight and now she’s a decent sized underdog. I prefer to believe that the opening number is a more appropriate depiction of this fight’s outcome than current pricing.
O’Neill +145
I released O’Neill +155 on Monday’s ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast, so we are seeing a little buy back on her. I’d say jump her now before more advantage in her price evaporated.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -240
