This week the UFC road trips from Manchester, England to Abu Dhabi in the Arab Emirates to present UFC FN Abu Dhabi: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov.
This card has thirteen fights slated with preliminary action starting at 9am PT in the states with the main card dropping at noon PT.
As with last week, it is foundational to understand which athletes are of Muslim belief and are from that geographical region and yes, they’ll be using the larger 30’ octagon this week.
Last week we split wagers, but the Belal Muhammad +215 wager pushes this year’s profitability to: 18-16 +6.72u.
Let’s address Abu Dhabi.
Cory Sandhagen +250 against Umar Nurmagomedov -290 Bantamweight (135lbs.) main event
Second ranked Cory Sandhagen is a world class mixed martial artist.
He’s a fleet footed, agile moving striker who uses his physical stature and brilliant angling to tatter opponents with his striking while befuddling them with his evasive strike defense. Sandhagen is an apt wrestler and as a brown belt in BJJ he can more than hold his own rolling on the rug.
Sandhagen has been in against the elite of the division, he’s thirty-two years old so just in his prime, as well he’s three inches taller than his opponent and holds leg and arm reach advantages.
Sandhagen has a positive significant strike ratio and averages better than 1.3 take downs per fifteen minutes. He can dominate fights wherever they transition. Sandhagen is legitimate top three in this division based on everything he has displayed to date.
Nurmagomedov is the tenth ranked bantamweight, yet he comes into this fight an almost -300 favorite.
Despite the experience and physical advantages, he is giving away to Sandhagen, Nurmagomedov has an obtuse strike differential on the feet and impressive grappling/takedown acumen working for him coming into this bout. Umar is the marquee man for this production so understand the crowd is his and they’ll be pulling for their compatriots all night long.
Sandhagen faced a more pedigreed, complete set of adversaries so he is surely prepared for this challenge and in fact asked for Umar.
For Nurmagomedov this is a substantial step up in class, but one he has been asking for, Sandhagen just happened to be one of very few ranked bantamweights willing to clash in the cage with Umar.
This will be a tightly contested fight between two skilled professionals fighting in the large cage in Abu Dhabi.
It’s my judgement that Nurmagomedov’s skills will make this fight appear to be similar in style, competition and outcome to the interim bantamweight title bout Sandhagen and Petr Yan competed in late in 2021. In that fight, Yan was able to use his deft boxing and forward pressure to keep the fight standing while pressing Sandhagen backwards.
Surely the Nurmagomedov camp has scrutinized film of this fight closely in order to glean any/every advantage to help him overcome the experience, movement, and size advantages that Sandhagen carries to the cage.
I’ll want the remainder of the week to watch this line mature.
Total in this fight: 3.5Rds Over -195
Shara Magomedov -250 vs. Michael Oleksiejczuk +210 Middleweight co main event
Michael O is a polish power puncher who is mean, aggressive, and willing to fight anyone, anywhere. It just so happens that Michael O’s striking/boxing is world class and those willing to compete on the feet with him give him every opportunity to earn victory often in impressive fashion.
However, Michal O has little wrestling/BJJ aptitude and therefore is often found drowning in fights where he is pitted against highly decorated grapplers or world class wrestlers.
In Shara Magomedov we have the epitome of a fighter to fade as he is deliberate on the feet, slow and telegraphing with his strikes yet a solid grappler/wrestler…
The way to make Shara shine is to feed him a singularly dimensioned striker from across the world, which is exactly what the UFC has done.
Once this fight starts Michael O will display a certain willingness to ‘get it on’ and he’ll light Magomedov up on the feet only so long as it takes the Dagestani grappler to decide to maul Michael O all over the mat.
Michael O knows exactly what’s coming and should he be able to keep this on the feet he has every chance to finish Magomedov but if this fight transitions to the mat, then Mikael O will drown.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -140
Mackenzie Dern -120 vs. Lupita Godinez +100 woman’s strawweight (115lbs.)
Godinez is a Mexican striker/wrestler who has deft boxing skill, a granite chin athletic movement and great cardio. Ranked tenth currently, Godinez has steadily risen up the division until her last bout a loss to Virna Jandiroba, an elite who is soon to be tussling for a title fight.
Godinez is exceedingly small in stature, but she is immense when it comes to toughness, belief and durability and she’ll enter this fight looking to get back into the win column by taking her opponent’s seventh ranked position away from her.
Seventh ranked MacKenzie Dern enters this fight a highly disrespected athlete based on my assessment of this line. At open she was -175 which seemed an accurate depiction of this fight.
Soon after opening however Godinez money poured in taking this line well closer to a pick-em.
Godinez has the mind, the heart, the durability, and the willingness to continue to rise up the ranks but she showed in her loss to Jandiroba that elite world class BJJ can cause her issue.
Dern enters this fight as the loser of three of her last four fights but returns to coach Jason Parillo under who Dern’s striking has evolved considerably.
Dern is the highest ranked most decorated BJJ artist of the division. Her championship pedigree from those BJJ tournaments, the level of UFC competition she has faced along with her improved striking together force me to regard Dern as the rightful favorite in this fight, a fight where she deserves to be priced more like she was at the opening bell as opposed to where she is priced currently.
Dern -120
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -238
Dern via submission is also an avenue I would consider once those prices are available.
Friday the ‘Bout Business podcast drops at GambLou.com. Go there to access all of my final releases for this UFC FN Abu Dhabi event.
Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!