Welcome fight enthusiasts to UFC LV 100.
The one hundredth UFC production from its APEX center represents one of five remaining fight cards scheduled for 2024.
The UFC APEX Center uses the smaller 25’ cage and offers fans and fighters little to no crowd in attendance. On this card, the athletes competing (outside of a handful of fights) are journeymen athletes who are competing for their UFC lives so we’ll see certain desperation in many performances.
Favorites in 2024 stand 312-127-13 or 69% which is a staggeringly high figure. Favorites customarily run about 62-63% in the UFC year to year.
This column’s profitability stands 26-22 +9.65u on the year but with a little more underdog cooperation results could have been more pronounced. That said, as an underdog player that’s a solid return on any year.
Underdog correction?
I am confident that a correction will come and thought it would be in 2024 however, we may just have to be a bit more patient.
Carlos Prates -780 vs. Neil Magny +575 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event
Magny, ranked fifteenth in the division, has competed in the UFC since 2013. A brown belt in BJJ, Magny is unusually long and lanky for his weight. His long angular frame contributes to his ability to manipulate foes into unfavorable positions then find a choke, neck arm or leg as he is wonderfully versed in the submission game.
Magny has competed against the elite of the welterweight division for more than a decade now and has seen every threat possible beginning with Ian Machado Garry who Magny fought last year and ending with a competitive tussle against Columbian Michal Morales in his last outing.
Magny is well more experienced than his opponent, has a two-inch height/reach advantage and has faced a far superior set of UFC adversaries than has Prates.
In Carlos Prates we have an angry, violent young man who arrives to the cage Saturday after devastating his first three UFC opponents in impressive fashion.
His level of competition has been ratcheted up each time he’s competed in the UFC and in Magny he steps up into the top fifteen of the division.
In this bout Prates tests his destructive striking pressure against the legitimate MMA skill of welterweight stalwart Magny.
Once this fight begins it will be Prates pressing forward and trying to slobber knock Magny into the shadow realm while Magny will use his guile, footwork and length to keep Prates at distance and force him to eventually become impatient/reckless upon entry or in trying to gain inside position.
Magny’s success will be founded on his ability to take Prates who has not fought into a third round in his last nine fights spanning four plus years into the third round and beyond.
There he may systematically suck Prates dry by forcing his own grappling pressure upon the younger Brazilian late in this fight and making him defend rather than advance.
Magny must sell his soul to get this fight into the third round. From there and after Prates has blown some of his youthful energy trying to take Magny out, he may be able to take advantage of his younger less experienced adversary.
So, while Prates will look to overwhelm Magny with blunt force trauma, Magny will attempt to slay a raging bull with intellect, movement, diversity of attack and patience.
I handicap Prates to be a -250 to -300 favorite here so current pricing mandates a small investment on Magny …or pass.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -205
Da’Mon Blackshear -285 vs. Cody Stamann +240 Bantamweight (135lbs)
Stamann’s been in the cage with the division’s elite. He’s a very solid wrestling-based fighter with power in his hands though he is not fluid afoot or elastic with his striking, rather Stamann’s striking is deliberate and somewhat labored.
Stamann, who has dropped his last two fights uses his pressure wrestling to gain inside position. From there he’ll work in close, forcing opponents against the fence, then onto the mat. Once the fight hits the floor Stamann will do all he can to gain top position as reigning ground and pound is his best avenue to victory here.
Da’Mon Blackshear also enters after losing his last two fights.
He’ll mirror the desperation/focus that Stamann brings to this fight but with Blackshear we get a man four inches taller than Stamann and one with a nine-inch reach advantage. Those physical superiorities are foundational to the outcome of this fight as long as it remains standing. It’s on the feet where Blackshear may use his height, reach, footwork and athleticism that I handicap Blackshear to have his best chance to win this fight.
Blackshear is strong, adroit and it’s my judgement that his overall mixed martial arts weaponry is more complete than Stamann’s. Stamann’s wrestling acumen, experience and level of competition faced make this fight one of the stellar ‘styles make fights’ bouts on the card.
If Stamann can floor the younger, taller Blackshear he’ll go a long way in ensuring success in this fight.
If Blackshear can keep this bout standing, he’ll force Stammen out of his comfort zone and into desperate attempts to take him to the canvas.
Blackshear opened a fair -170 in this fight. His current price is out of whack so with that in mind I’ll invest in Stamann +240 .5u.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Over -380
Tresean Gore -185 vs. Antonio Trocoli +155 Middleweight (185lbs.)
Tresean Gore, 1-2 in the UFC has not competed in the cage since late 2022. He’s athletic, quick and looks to ‘shoot’ on opponents to take them down then attempt to submit them. At thirty he is still in the development stages of his MMA fighting career which I handicap will factor in this fight.
Trocoli is resurrecting a career he put on hold years ago.
A freak at 6’5”, he will own substantial height advantage, his seven inches reach edge pronounced also.
Provided Trocoli canuse his legs to keep this fight in the center of the cage and the faster, shorter Gore on the outside, he’ll command respect with his leveraged kicking, knees and strikes.
Gore, an inexperienced fighter, must earn his way inside on a veteran striker who in the first couple of rounds of any fight is fast, refined and powerful. I believe Trocoli is dangerous here especially later in the week as the finish props are released on this bout.
Trocoli +155 .5u
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds Under -145
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