This week the UFC returns to its APEX center in Las Vegas, NV. where the smaller 25’ octagon is in use and few fans are able to attend. Prelims kick off at 1pm PT and the main card starts at 4pm PT.
Of the thirteen scheduled fights, five take place at welterweight or heavier as well fourteen US athletes populate the card with another nine from Brazil.
Last year I moaned incessantly about the 70.5% rate of favorites winning in the UFC. That number has regressed quite aggressively so far in 2025 as favorites stand 27-19-1 or 57.4%.
I dropped two bets last week on dismal dogs but one, Champion Weili Zhang who closed +135 dominated her fight against a singularly dimensioned and overmatched Tatian Suarez.
Digital results stand 2-4 -3.15 on the year.
Gregory Rodrigues -190 vs. Jarod Cannonier +165 Middleweight (185lbs.) main event
Cannonier is the seventh ranked middleweight in the division. He’s competed from heavyweight to middleweight throughout his illustrious career and at forty years of age enters a most pivotal fight as his top ten standing lies in jeopardy with a loss here.
Cannonier’s defeated the elite of the division prior to his last two fights. Those losses, to Ciao Borralho and Nassourdine Imavov respectively showed Cannonier to be a true warrior if not an undersized forty-year-old competing against larger, faster, more powerful adversaries.
Saturday, he takes the cage against another highly skilled and dangerous mixed martial artist. This will be Cannoniers the third competition and second main event in eight months! Three in eight is highly active for a thirty-year-old middleweight let alone one that is forty.
Rodrigues, an eight-time amateur BJJ champion in Brazil, arrives to this fight winner of his last three however Rodrigues has not competed against the elite of the division as has his opponent, so this represents a step up in competition for certain.
Rodrigues is a sculpted specimen of a man who carries an abundance of power in any hammer he throws whether elbow, knee, or fist.
‘Robocop’ as Rodrigues is called will hulk over Cannonier. He’s three inches the taller fighter, he will grossly outweigh Cannonier come fight night and he’s the younger man by eight years.
When this fight begins, it will be a battle between the speed, legwork and fight IQ of Cannonier and the methodical, deliberate, forward pressing pressure applied by the aggressive Robocop.
Cannonier’s recent activity (in fact over activity) against elite competition cannot be regarded as advantageous. In fact, his accepting these top-level fights against younger ascending athletes with only weeks in between to recover/recharge is concerning, it tells me he is yearning to earn as opposed to grinding for a title?
Rodrigues -190
Youssef Zalal -380 vs. Calvin Kattar +310 Featherweight (145lbs.) co main
Like the main event this fight presents a contract of styles. In one corner we have a highly skilled, lightning fast, athletic, mixed martial artist in Youssef Zalal. He fights against a large, powerful, forward pressing boxer/striker in Cal Kattar.
Kattar’s last three fights have been against the top ranked fighters in the division. Sterling, Emmett and Allen represent a murders row of elite competition. Kattar went to decision with both Sterling and Allen which is impressive in itself. He was injured in the other fight.
Kattar’s advantages will be his size, experience and power striking.
Zalal in 2022, was released from his first stint in the UFC because he was just an ordinary fighter on a very good day and a poor one on all others.
He spent the next couple of years maturing and realizing that it is his fighting skill not his intellect which would allow him to realize financial success.
By the time Zalal worked his way back into the UFC last March he was a completely different man emotionally and physically. Since his return he’s dominated his last three opponents while stepping up in level of opponent for each bout.
With this fight, Zalal enters the cage in peak form as a fighter against a guy in Kattar who is thirty-six and focused on retaining his standing within the division as opposed to tearing through it.
Zalal’s focus manifested with his speed, footwork and well-rounded fighting ability present too much for a more deliberate yet durable athlete in Kattar as I handicap this fight.
The big question is whether Zalal has a chance to finish the tough Bostonian.
Total in this fight; 2.5Rds Over -240
Jose Delgado -265 vs. Conor Matthews +235 Featherweight (145lbs.)
Matthews, thirty-two, enters this fight 0-1 in the UFC and hungry to solidify his position in the organization. He’s not overly athletic nor has he competed against high level competition which is what he is going to get in this fight.
Delgado is a young gun from Phoenix who will come into this fight with a lethal striking plan backed up by world class wrestling/grappling. Delgado will be the younger man by six years, the taller fighter by three inches and he’ll hold a reach advantage all of which together add to advantage when these two are standing and striking.
Delgado is just another of the highly talented lighter weight professional athletes training at Phoenix MMALab. He is in a position to shine Saturday as this fight has been placed on the main card.
Total in this fight: 1.5Rds Over -200
I’ll release a parlay this week.
Delgado -265/Rodrigues -190 parlay: 1u returns 1.10u
The GambLou ‘Bout Business Podcast has all my final releases for each week’s UFC cards. Catch it at GambLou.com.
Thank You for reading and enjoy the fights!