Welcome Fight Enthusiasts to UFC LV76 Strickland vs. Magomedov!
This week I’m posting ‘Bout Business Podcast UFC releases on the GabLou.com webpage as backup because I am unable to complete the podcast today.
Last week we enjoyed a banner result profiting 4.77u.
2023 profitability stands: 50-47 +14.98u 15% ROI
Both Topuria -330 and Allen -215 delivered on the second legs of parlays. We had each fighter in underdog positions.
I will be very aggressive moving forward in scouring for parlay positions that are set up between a couple of different fight cards. I like how that works for us.
Speaking of that, we lost the Della Madellena vs. Brady bout. Therefore our 1.0u +123 outlay becomes a simple win returning .48u. I’ll use the .48 profit on this card since those wagers are all now graded.
That leaves Covington -110 and Alexa Grasso +195 as our sole future positions along with the Randy Brown/Jalin Turner +111 parlay that will mature next week after that fight.
Ok here’s this week’s releases:
Round 1
Ivana Petrovic -215 vs. Luana Carolina +175
Carolina is a long tall Brazilian striking based fighter who packs little power and produces little by way of volume in her attack. It’s usual that Carolina is fending off incoming pressure from wrestlers/grapplers who understand that the way to defeat Carolina is to get her on her back where she is unable to get up or defend herself.
In debuting fighter Ivana Petrovic we have the exact form of fight style that is designed to give Carolina fits. In fact, I really view this as a set up fight designed to make Petrovic look good.
Petrovic -215/Moreno -195 +121 1u
Leg 2 of the parlay is Brandon Moreno -195. Moreno is on next week’s fight card.
Round 2:
Rinat Fakhretdinov -225 vs. Kevin Lee +180
Rinat’s an authentic Russian vice grip, but he’s stepping up in class for this bout. Kevin Lee’s going to be a desperate fighter who knows he’s been set in with someone the organization wants to test him with.
This is a fight that in his first stint in the UFC would be too much for lee at 170lbs. Now, I don’t think it is, in fact, I like Lee in this spot.
Lee +180 .6u
Lee decision +340 .4u
Round 3
Ismael Bonfin -320 vs. Benoit St. Denis +260
Bonfin is an explosive Brazilian hand grenade. He’s short, stocky, explosive, powerful and primarily a striker. In this one St. Denis, who is getting appropriate credit for showing toughness in a previous bout against Elizeo dos Santos is NOT getting enough credit for his power striking, size, his grappling advantage and the way he enters this bout off two UFC wins.
Key to this fight will be St. Denis surviving the first round then being able to inflict his size and grappling onto the inflated but most dangerous Bonfin brother.
St. Denis +260 .5u
Round 4
Morales -260 vs. Max Griffin +215
Morales a tall, powerful, twenty-year old Ecuadorian enters this fight looking to keep his momentum rolling. Morales coming off contender series, has two first round finishes entering this his third UFC bout.
Morales steps up in this fight, one that I view similarly to the Rinat and Lee bout.
Morales has shown great talent and ability but, in a situation, where he steps up in class considerably against a fighter as capable as Griffin forces me to have to make Mr. Morales prove to me that he is up for this much increase in the ability of his foe.
Griffin is pissed and he took his anger on this matchup (he saw this match-up as it is, a potential set-up fight for Morales) in training. He’s focused on making sure the UFC understands his abilities after the results of this bout are completed.
I like Griffin here because I believe I’ll get his absolute best effort and he’s the more versed well-rounded athlete and I believe we’ll see some wrestling from him.
Griffin +215 .5u
Round 5
Damir Ismagulov -105 vs. Grand Dawson -115
I released Dawson +110 earlier in the week when I could see his underdog position melting away.
Ismagulov lost his last bout to Tsarukyan then retired because of health in family issues. A month later, he’s back. Bad sign as far as I am concerned. Then Ismagulov claimed he did not train for Tsarukyan but he has for this fight.
I think Ismagulov is showing some slow regression in his quickness, his crispness in the cage and his ability to defend aggressive forward pressing wrestlers especially.
In Grant Dawson we get an ascending fighter who is displaying great progress with his relationship with Mike Brown and Florida’s ATT.
Dawson is still growing; he’s an unrelenting pressing wrestling grappling machine and I believe he will be able to smother Ismagulov’s space (Ismagulov so wants to be in striking battles) then clasp onto the Russian in order to force this fight to the floor where from top position Dawson can reign damage.
Dawson +110 1u
as released earlier this week
Thank for reading Fight Enthusiasts. Next week we’ll be back on the airwaves but it sure is nice to have the webpage back!