This week’s Fight Night will be the last event from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas for a few weeks as the organization readies itself for a worldwide tour over the course of the next month.
Meanwhile on this slate we have twelve scheduled matchups featuring athletes from 115lbs to the 265lb heavyweights with the main event a welterweight bout between two decorated Brazilian mixed martial artists.
Favorites in the UFC are realizing a 63% success rate thus far in 2023 and we fought ourselves back into profitability last week with the main event wager of Over 3.5Rds. -140 as Sandhagen and Font went to decision.
2023 profitability: 13-14 + 0.15u
Rafael Dos Anjos -120 vs. Vicente Luque +100 Welterweight (170lbs.) main event
RDA is the ninth ranked lightweight (155lbs.) in the organization but in this scrap, he’s stepping up in weight class to face his countryman Luque.
RDA, 32-14 has a wealth of fight experience in both the lightweight and welterweight divisions. He’s a well versed mixed martial artist as witnessed by the fact that he owns a fourth-degree black belt in BJJ as well he’s a Black prajied in Muay Thai.
RDA’s faced elite competition throughout his career and although he is thirty-eight years old, he can still perform and compete with world class mixed marital artists.
Last December RDA competing at welterweight, a division he is 5-4 in looked crisp in taking ‘Bam Bam’ Barbarena down to the mat for a submission win in the second round. He looked like the faster, quicker more skilled fighter that night but he faces an opponent well more dangerous than the singularly dimensioned Barbarena come this weekend.
Fellow Brazilian Vicente Luque is a cold finisher decorated with his own black belt in BJJ and a black belt in Luta Livre Esportiva. Ranked tenth in the welterweight division he arrives the legitimately sized welterweight, focused, driven and desperate after losing his last two bouts.
Luque’s seven years the younger man, he’s a couple inches taller and he’ll hold a 5” reach advantage in this bout on top of that, thirteen of Luque’s fourteen UFC wins have been via the finish!
Luque, is the far more dangerous, lethal striker between these men so it’s my belief that RDA will look to force this fight into the clinch, then pressed against the cage. At that point RDA must do all he can to take Luque to the mat where he may gain top position and performs his most effective work.
Material to this handicap is the fact that Luque enters this bout after being diagnosed with ‘brain hemorrhaging’ as a result of his last bout against Goeff Neal.
What we have been told is that Luque’s had the appropriate time off and is ‘medically cleared’ to compete per the rules mandated by the UFC which I believe must be relatively stringent given their exposure to litigation.
So, an important aspect when considering any wager on this fight is the physical, mental and emotional condition Luque hauls with him into this bout. This is something I’ll be looking closely at/for in the fighter interviews Wednesday.
On his game Luque is an aggressive, forward pressing, ’walk his opponent down’ buzzsaw of a power striker and that’s what I expect him to present once the bell for round one rings as he’s certain to yearn to get ack into the win column to improve upon his already top ten ranking and keep his potential title hopes alive.
Luque’s size, the fact he’s the legitimate welterweight power striker and the intense forward pressure he delivers into his bouts all signify advantage in this bout provided there are no lingering effects from that last bout.
For RDA I believe his tactics must revolve around forcing the proud, seasoned warrior into a mistake that may lead to RDA transferring this fight to the floor. It’s from top position where RDA is most dangerous and it’s there where he stands the best chance at upsetting Vicente Luque.
At the end of the day, I lean to Luque.
Total in this fight: 4.5Rds. Under -145
Hakeem Dawodu -220 vs. Cub Swanson +190 Featherweight (145lbs.) co main event
Swanson is a grizzled UFC veteran with a professional record of 28-13.
The thirty-nine-year-old warrior is a black belt in BJJ and has competed in three descending weight divisions during his storied career, lightweight (155lbs) then featherweight (145lbs) and in his last bout, bantamweight (135lbs).
What’s worthy of mention is that after getting decisively finished in his last outing at bantamweight last fall Swanson is returning to featherweight in a change that at Cub’s age seems a move of desperation.
A precision striker with a well-rounded fight arsenal Swanson has shown the ability to out skill, out strategize and out execute lower-level UFC talent but he struggles mightily with competition that is top twenty worthy.
Dawodu, much like his foe Swanson, comes from the mean streets where his outward aggression was steering him straight to the ‘Graybar hotel’.
At fourteen though Dawodu was exposed to Muay Thai fighting as a release for his deep seeded anger and he excelled in the gym realizing a 42-5 record as an amateur then a 6-0 tally as a professional.
In this bout Dawodu will be the younger man by six years as well the thicker, larger, more explosive athlete who will hold a 3” reach advantage. He’ll look to use his footwork and length to maintain distance so he can club Cub on his way inside to engage.
Cub meanwhile may want to mute Dawodu’s power by clasping, clinching, pressing against the fence and wrestling. Swanson’s ability to force the younger more violent man to expend energy early and allow Dawodu’s arms to swell and slow seem the more logical approach to him getting his hand raised.
Dawodu appears to be in a favorable spot in this, a fight that can showcase his youth, speed, power and aggression.
Dawodu opened -325 for this bout which was hammered down to the current price of Dawodu -220.
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -145
This week’s release:
Luque/RDA Over 2.5Rds. -205 to Dawodu -220; parlay +114
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Enjoy the fights and thank you for reading
GambLou
Profitable Sports Gaming