This week the UFC returns to its APEX facility for a scheduled thirteen-bout fight card with preliminary action beginning at 4pm PT and the main card following at 7pm PT.
This fight card features eleven fights where the combatants are lightweight (155lbs.) and smaller. Blended finish rates for fights in that size range are: 51.2%. The smaller octagon in use at the APEX may help force confrontation but these smaller, obscure athletes on this production may produce more decision results from this perspective.
Last week I released two ducks as both Thiago Moises, who looked forty- and forty-year-old Jarred Cannonier were both defeated. Moises was never in his bout and looked old, slow, and washed.
Recent rumblings around the UFC surround the suspect stoppage for Cannonier and the potential for an immediate rematch between he and Nassourdine Imavov in France on a card currently scheduled for September 28th. Interesting.
Profitability for my free ‘Sneak-Teep’ Podcast releases: 9-6-2 +3.41u
Alex Perez +155 vs. Tatsuro Taira -180 Flyweight (125lbs) main event
Twenty-four-year-old submission savant Taira ships in from Japan and is currently the face of UFC expansion in that Country. He enters thirteenth ranked in the division at 15-0, a purple belt in BJJ as well he is a gifted grappler who has performed exceptionally well in his five UFC fights.
Taira is getting special treatment as Japan is a fertile expansion area for the organization and the UFC is providing him this opportunity to face an established adversary in Perez who is ranked fifth in the division.
Perez is a formidable challenge for the young Japanese fighter. Though Taira is an inch taller and will hold a five-inch arm reach advantage the fact is that the stringency of UFC adversary Taira has faced pales in comparison to the elite level of opponent Perez has battled.
Those who read my columns understand how much I factor a fighter’s body of work and recent fights Perez has thrived in, specifically against Mohammad Mokaev force me to lean to him in this fight.
On top of whom Perez has competed against he’s been active for this will be his third fight since March 2nd while Taira’s last bout was this past December.
Once this fight begins, Taira’s natural athleticism, speed and length will be the tools he employs to try to bewilder Perez.
Taira’s advances will revolve around grappling and trying to coax Perez into a roll on the mat for Taira’s grappling has been foundational in his past victories and Perez has been submitted in prior bouts.
However, being submitted by experienced world class flyweight BJJ practitioners like Deiveson Figueiredo (now the sixth ranked bantamweight) and current flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja carries little shame in my handicapping and Taira is not on that level of ability at this point of his fight career.
Perez for his part, will look to forcefully press the younger man backwards and eventually against the cage and make this fight a toe-to-toe throw down. Perez must establish his dominance early in this fight by showing little to no respect for his younger less experienced foe and employ his wrestling acumen to thwart Taira’s grappling and keep this fight on the feet.
Perez’s strength, savvy and who he has competed against force me to favor him in this spot against a talent in Taira who is stepping up substantially in competition for this opportunity.
In this fight Taira will have to prove to mixed martial arts investors that his grappling and overall fight acumen are complete enough to compete against one of the divisions elites in Perez.
Taira opened -250 to Perez +210 and in this situation, it is likely he will be awarded his PhD. in MMA as I judge the current flow of money coming in on the more established mixed martial artist Perez as justified.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -145.
Jesse Armfield -175 vs. Brady Hiestand +145 Bantamweight (135lbs.)
I try highlight bouts that have the potential to be real bangers and this bantamweight battle sets up to be an edge of your seat brawl.
Hiestand is a willing striker with decent wrestling ability. Fighting out of Washington state he is 7-2 professionally and 2-1 in the UFC.
He dropped his first UFC fight against a solid fighter in Ricky Turcios then came back to defeat a couple journeyman athletes, so he enters carrying momentum.
One concerning aspect to Hiestand is his inactivity. It has been since April of last year since he stepped into the cage. Time off can indicate potential injury issues, yet time may also allow for fighter development so Hiestand must be regarded as dangerous in this situation and surely ready to fire fresh.
On the other corner of the cage stands Garrett Armfield who opened -220 for this fight and is now a more reasonable -175. Armfield has had the opportunity to compete twice since July of last year. His most recent win was against established commodity Brad Katona who he defeated via impressive decision.
Armfield has solid wrestling as well is aggressive on the feet. He is a finisher as he’s earned eight of his ten professional victories via submission or KO. His sole UFC loss was in his UFC debut which he took on short notice and up a weight against a featherweight fury David Onama.
It is the more complete fighting arsenal of Armfield that makes him the legitimate favorite in this bout. Now supplement his fight prowess with a contracting price and it is my handicap that Garrett Armfield is well positioned to continue his climb up the rankings Saturday against Brady Hiestand in what is more than likely a high-octane decision outcome.
Armfield -175
Total in this fight: 2.5Rds. Over -195
The ‘Bout Business Podcast drops mid-day Friday, it offers listeners my best bets for each UFC card.
Access it each week there is a UFC event at GambLou.com.
Thank you for reading and enjoy the hostilities!